Amicus briefs

In re Section 301 Forced Labor Cases — U.S. Court of International Trade, September 11. In July the administration imposed tariffs of 10 and 12.5 percent on imports from 60 economies under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The pretextual justification for these tariffs is the burden on U.S. commerce from overseas production involving forced labor. Importers sued the day the tariffs took effect, and 25 states followed in August.

Our brief supports the plaintiffs. We explain that the tariffs are disproportionate to the economic impact of forced labor on U.S. employment, production, and trade under any set of reasonable assumptions, and that the tariffs are large enough to raise a major question because of the revenue they generate, their effects on consumers, and their impact on firms and U.S. competitiveness.

State of Oregon v. Trump and Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v. Trump — U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, September 8. In May the Court of International Trade struck down the 10 percent global tariffs imposed in February under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and the government appealed.

We ask the appeals court to affirm. We argue that “large and serious United States balance-of-payments deficits,” which the tariffs purportedly address, are impossible in today’s system of floating exchange rates. We also argue that the United States does not face the “fundamental international payments problems” the statute requires as a threshold condition for authorizing tariffs. The government’s interpretation of the statute would grant the President unconstrained authority to impose worldwide tariffs with vast economic and political significance. Bloomberg Law covered the brief.

Genalo v. G.M. — U.S. Supreme Court, September 8. This case revolved around the question of whether due process requires bond hearings for those subject to prolonged immigration detention under Section 1226(c), which requires detaining noncitizens with certain criminal convictions while their cases are pending.

We provided three relevant stylized facts. First, the share of individuals detained under Section 1226(c) for more than six months represents one half of one percent of the ICE detention population, and the share of such individuals detained as long as G.M. represents only one tenth of one percent of that population. Second, noncitizens released from prolonged Section 1226(c) detention on bond not only reliably appear at hearings, but they are also more than three times as likely to prevail in their cases as those who remain detained. Third, prolonged detention for Section 1226(c) detainees is disproportionately costly, and drives up the ever-increasing costs of immigration enforcement.

Three days after we filed, the case was dismissed. New York’s governor had pardoned G.M. for the conviction on which the detention rested, rendering the case moot. The government says it will look for another case that brings the question back to the Court.

Writing

How Does the District’s Federal Funding Compare to the 50 States? — Capital Commonsense, September 8. While headline numbers suggest that DC’s funding is particularly generous, that impression is driven by special features of DC’s governance structure. DC’s federal revenue share looks larger than it really is because DC receives certain subsidies to compensate for its lack of access to the tax instruments states use. Its total revenue (federal plus own-source) would be greater if it lost its subsidies but gained tax autonomy. In that counterfactual world its federal revenue share would fall from 38 to 26 percent: 26th, just below New York.

Events

On September 22, the Alexander Hamilton Society at Baylor University hosted me for a talk on policy responses to America’s collapsing rates of fertility and net immigration. No video, unfortunately.

On September 30, I presented “Intergovernmental Grants to School Districts and Educational Outcomes During the COVID-19 Pandemic,” my paper with Jeffrey Clemens and Philip Hoxie on pandemic-era federal education aid, at the Tax Economists Forum. No video either.

Looking ahead

On Friday, October 9, I will moderate an AEI book event for Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick on The Everywhere Millionaire: Who Is Really Rich in America and How They Got There. We will be joined by Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal. Noon to 1:00 p.m. ET at AEI, and livestreamed. Register here.

On Wednesday, October 28, a week before the midterms, I will give a preview of the elections for the U.S. chapter of the CDA, the Dutch Christian Democrats. On Zoom, in Dutch, noon to 1:00 p.m. ET (5:00 p.m. in the Netherlands). Register here.

That’s September. Replies and feedback are welcome, as always.

— Stan

Writing

How Does the District Use Federal Funding? — Capital Commonsense, August 20. About $6 billion in federal money ran through the District’s budget in fiscal 2025, or 31.3 percent of total revenues. This is the first post in a series on DC’s federal funding.

Media

De Telegraaf — quoted by Paul Jansen on the strengths and weaknesses of the US economy (August 15). In Dutch.

The Wall Street Journal — quoted by Justin Lahart on why a slowing pace of hiring is not the same thing as a weakening labor market. I argued that the rest of the year will, if anything, see slower jobs growth than what we have seen so far (August 7).

Al Jazeera English, “This is America” — Bruce Fein and I discussed the economics and politics of antitrust policy in the media industry with host Alex Marquardt (August 6).

Events

On Friday, October 9, I will moderate an AEI book event for Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick on The Everywhere Millionaire: Who Is Really Rich in America and How They Got There, joined by Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal. Noon to 1:00 p.m. ET, with lunch served. Livestreamed as well. Registration is open at the link.

That’s August. Replies and feedback are welcome, as always.

— Stan

Writing

Destruction, Policy, and the Evolving Consequences of Washington, DC’s 1968 Civil Disturbance — The Review of Economics and Statistics, with Leah Brooks and Jonathan Rose. We describe and analyze what happened to DC’s 14th Street, Shaw, and H Street retail corridors in the decades that followed the riots after Martin Luther King Jr.’s assassination. (Ungated working paper.)

Intergovernmental Grants to School Districts and Educational Outcomes During the COVID-19 Pandemic — NBER Working Paper, with Jeffrey Clemens and Philip Hoxie. The federal government sent school districts a very large amount of pandemic aid. We evaluate its impact on schools with district poverty shares near 5% and find that the aid crowded out local revenue and did not mitigate learning losses.

A Smaller Labor Force Means a Smaller Economy — The Dispatch. An analysis of the macroeconomic consequences of low fertility and falling immigration.

This Is Your Economy on Tariffs — Home of the Brave. An update on the state of US tariff policy and some suggestions for improvement.

Media

I told Joe Kelly of The Australian that there has been “no rebirth of manufacturing in the heartland; how could there be, with extreme uncertainty over future policy and tariffs on industrial inputs? The main consequences of Trump’s second-term tariff policies have been chaos and disruption. American households have faced higher prices and businesses have seen their supply chains upended.” A belated happy Fourth!

Al Jazeera English, “This is America” — Harry Broadman and I discussed the USMCA renegotiation process (July 13).

Jessica Guynn quoted me in a USA Today article on the economic consequences of the administration’s termination of Temporary Protected Status for Haitians and Venezuelans (July 30).

Events

Filipe Campante and I taught a week-long mini-course on the politics and economics of the FIFA World Cup (July 13–17), as part of the AEI–Johns Hopkins Fellowship Exchange Program. No video, but we gave a lunch talk on the same topics for students in AEI’s Summer Honors Program, moderated by Shantanu Kamat. You can watch that here.

I moderated a panel on “Delivering Equitable Prosperity” at LibCon2026, the Institute for the Study of Modern Authoritarianism’s annual conference on liberalism in the 21st century (July 16–17), with Simon Johnson, Scott Lincicome, and Sonja Trauss. No video unfortunately.

The Center for American Progress hosted an event on immigration policy, featuring Senator Cortez Masto (D-NV), on July 29. I participated as a panelist. You can watch it here.

That’s all for July. Replies and feedback are welcome, as always.

— Stan

This is the June 2026 edition.

Writing

The Strange Logic of World Cup Ticket Prices — Foreign Policy, with Filipe Campante and Florian Ederer. We explain what drove FIFA World Cup ticket prices before the tournament started: host country fans, superstar players, and diaspora communities.

Does Immigration Lead to “Democratic Drain” and Illiberalism in Native Countries? — The UnPopulist. I review Justin Gest’s new book, mostly disagreeing with his argument that emigration weakens democracy in migrants’ countries of origin.

Immigration Policy and Labor Supply — Business Economics, with Anna Maria Mayda and Andrew Selee. This is the article version of a panel discussion at the 2026 NABE Economic Policy Conference. Anna Maria, Andrew, and I discuss how Trump administration changes to immigration policy have affected net migration and the labor market.

Media

Economics in One World Cup — More World Cup content, this time on the Cato Institute podcast, with Ryan Bourne. We talk about ticket prices, local economic impact, immigration, Passportgate, whether it will be coming home, etc.

Al Jazeera English, “This is America” — Ryan and I were also on Al Jazeera together recently, to talk about prediction markets.

I was quoted in Barron’s on the Supreme Court’s ruling in Mullin v. Doe, which strips Temporary Protected Status from more than 350,000 immigrants. It is a “big blow for TPS beneficiaries from all countries, as their status (and with that their work authorization) is now either gone or extremely vulnerable.”

Events

The Future of International Tax Reform — I moderated the opening panel, on principles for international tax reform, at this two-day AEI conference (June 15-16) organized by Mindy Herzfeld and Kyle Pomerleau.

As part of AEI’s Summer Honors Program I taught a week-long seminar, “Across Borders: Navigating Globalization,” to undergraduates. Always a joy.

I spoke on trade policy and the transatlantic relationship at the 16th Transatlantic Think Tank Conference, hosted by the Hudson Institute (June 22–24), and hosted Roberto Viola, Director-General of the European Commission’s DG CONNECT, at AEI on June 26. No video footage sadly!

That’s June. Thanks for reading the first issue of Veugerity — feedback is very welcome!

— Stan