Here is the September 2026 edition of Veugerity, a monthly overview of my work.
Amicus briefs
In re Section 301 Forced Labor Cases — U.S. Court of International Trade, September 11. In July the administration imposed tariffs of 10 and 12.5 percent on imports from 60 economies under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The pretextual justification for these tariffs is the burden on U.S. commerce from overseas production involving forced labor. Importers sued the day the tariffs took effect, and 25 states followed in August.
Our brief supports the plaintiffs. We explain that the tariffs are disproportionate to the economic impact of forced labor on U.S. employment, production, and trade under any set of reasonable assumptions, and that the tariffs are large enough to raise a major question because of the revenue they generate, their effects on consumers, and their impact on firms and U.S. competitiveness.
State of Oregon v. Trump and Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v. Trump — U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, September 8. In May the Court of International Trade struck down the 10 percent global tariffs imposed in February under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and the government appealed.
We ask the appeals court to affirm. We argue that “large and serious United States balance-of-payments deficits,” which the tariffs purportedly address, are impossible in today’s system of floating exchange rates. We also argue that the United States does not face the “fundamental international payments problems” the statute requires as a threshold condition for authorizing tariffs. The government’s interpretation of the statute would grant the President unconstrained authority to impose worldwide tariffs with vast economic and political significance. Bloomberg Law covered the brief.
Genalo v. G.M. — U.S. Supreme Court, September 8. This case revolved around the question of whether due process requires bond hearings for those subject to prolonged immigration detention under Section 1226(c), which requires detaining noncitizens with certain criminal convictions while their cases are pending.
We provided three relevant stylized facts. First, the share of individuals detained under Section 1226(c) for more than six months represents one half of one percent of the ICE detention population, and the share of such individuals detained as long as G.M. represents only one tenth of one percent of that population. Second, noncitizens released from prolonged Section 1226(c) detention on bond not only reliably appear at hearings, but they are also more than three times as likely to prevail in their cases as those who remain detained. Third, prolonged detention for Section 1226(c) detainees is disproportionately costly, and drives up the ever-increasing costs of immigration enforcement.
Three days after we filed, the case was dismissed. New York’s governor had pardoned G.M. for the conviction on which the detention rested, rendering the case moot. The government says it will look for another case that brings the question back to the Court.
Writing
How Does the District’s Federal Funding Compare to the 50 States? — Capital Commonsense, September 8. While headline numbers suggest that DC’s funding is particularly generous, that impression is driven by special features of DC’s governance structure. DC’s federal revenue share looks larger than it really is because DC receives certain subsidies to compensate for its lack of access to the tax instruments states use. Its total revenue (federal plus own-source) would be greater if it lost its subsidies but gained tax autonomy. In that counterfactual world its federal revenue share would fall from 38 to 26 percent: 26th, just below New York.
Events
On September 22, the Alexander Hamilton Society at Baylor University hosted me for a talk on policy responses to America’s collapsing rates of fertility and net immigration. No video, unfortunately.
On September 30, I presented “Intergovernmental Grants to School Districts and Educational Outcomes During the COVID-19 Pandemic,” my paper with Jeffrey Clemens and Philip Hoxie on pandemic-era federal education aid, at the Tax Economists Forum. No video either.
Looking ahead
On Friday, October 9, I will moderate an AEI book event for Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick on The Everywhere Millionaire: Who Is Really Rich in America and How They Got There. We will be joined by Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal. Noon to 1:00 p.m. ET at AEI, and livestreamed. Register here.
On Wednesday, October 28, a week before the midterms, I will give a preview of the elections for the U.S. chapter of the CDA, the Dutch Christian Democrats. On Zoom, in Dutch, noon to 1:00 p.m. ET (5:00 p.m. in the Netherlands). Register here.
That’s September. Replies and feedback are welcome, as always.
— Stan